Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX AND WESTERN NE/CENTRAL SD...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail will diminish across eastern New
Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Isolated strong to marginal
severe wind and hail will be possible into the overnight across
western Nebraska to central South Dakota.
...NM/TX...
An overall weakening trend has been noted with discrete cells
focused along the southeast NM/far west TX border and
clustering/line segments farther north along the northeast NM/TX
Panhandle border. This trend is expected to persist given weak
buoyancy/lapse rates to the northeast (per the 00Z AMA sounding) and
impinging on greater MLCIN over the Trans-Pecos and Pecos Valley of
TX. The 00Z EPZ sounding sampled decent west-southwesterly speed
shear and modest buoyancy. This will support some threat for
marginally severe hail/wind over the next 1-2 hours.
...NE/SD...
Convection has struggled to intensify owing to weak mid-level lapse
rates and buoyancy amid a modest deep-layer meridional wind profile,
per the 00Z LBF sounding. Recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs suggest some
intensification of far northeast CO and western NE convection may
occur tonight. This could be realized as a minor MCV advances
north-northeast towards a residual corridor of moderate buoyancy in
SD, mainly overnight. While the overall setup will probably support
just strong storms at most, will maintain a corridor of level 1-MRGL
risk for a low-probability, marginal severe threat.
..Grams.. 09/14/2025
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