Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad
portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more
concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of
the Dakotas.
...Dakotas/Western Minnesota...
Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast
to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A
low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards
evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the
low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor
of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into
central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development
is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as
ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted
upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be
isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient
supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low
could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some
tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later
this evening.
...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas...
Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will
contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this
afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be
displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the
potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting
in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level
lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating
trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail,
centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity.
...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly
cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell
structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and
hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper
trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more
focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would
appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest
Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through
early evening.
...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley...
In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and
diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in
vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day
elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that
develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging
winds and perhaps some small hail.
...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region...
Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far
eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within
a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse
rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the
eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest.
..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025
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