Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS...AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward
from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this
shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move from
eastward from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by this evening. A
trailing cold front will move across parts of the Southeast,
Carolinas, and Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the
deepening cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is
expected to remain rather modest, due to weak midlevel lapse rates
and relatively muted diurnal heating.
Increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development
along/ahead of the front through the day. Some severe threat could
accompany early-day convection from the eastern KY vicinity into WV
and western VA. The primary severe threat is expected to develop
during the afternoon and evening, as fast-moving cells and clusters
spread eastward from the lee of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge to the
Carolinas/Mid Atlantic coast.
While a relatively broad region could see organized storms this
afternoon and evening, some uncertainty remains regarding the
dominant convective mode and hazards. Wind profiles will be
favorable for discrete supercells, especially across parts of the
Carolinas into Virginia. Any supercells would pose a threat of
damaging wind, hail, and potentially a few tornadoes, especially in
closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, some
guidance suggests primarily a cluster or linear mode, which would
favor more of a damaging-wind threat, though isolated hail and a
tornado would still be possible in this scenario. Greater wind
probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more of a
cluster/linear mode, and/or if stronger heating/destabilization ends
up being realized.
...Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan...
A reinforcing mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly
jet will move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the
afternoon and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit
buoyancy, but relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft will support thunderstorm development during the
late afternoon and evening. Localized severe gusts and hail could
accompany the strongest storms as they move south-southeastward.
...Eastern NM into Far West TX...
Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture
across parts of NM and west TX. Moderate instability and modest
midlevel northwesterlies could support a few strong storms capable
of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts.
..Dean.. 05/30/2025
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