Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of west and
central Texas. Strong to locally severe storms are also possible
tonight from parts of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South.
...Parts of central/west TX...
An intense supercell is moving southward this evening across the TX
Permian Basin, with other cells noted into parts of the TX Big
Country, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Evolution
of convection into later tonight across the region is somewhat
uncertain, but if additional development can occur this evening
along the front, then some upscale growth will be possible,
potentially spreading a somewhat greater threat for severe gusts
southeastward into south-central TX later tonight. In the short
term, ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of very
large hail and severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph). Some
tornado threat could also develop with supercells near the surface
boundary.
...AR into parts of the TN Valley...
As a shortwave moves through the base of an amplifying
mid/upper-level trough tonight, a gradually deepening surface low
will move from eastern AR into southern KY. Scattered storms are
expected to develop and move eastward in conjunction with the
shortwave trough and surface low. Instability will likely remain
relatively modest, but increasingly favorable wind profiles could
support development of a couple supercells, with at least an
isolated threat for all severe hazards.
...Southeast/Carolinas...
Stronger convection has mostly become confined to near the FL East
Coast and parts of NC. Modestly favorable deep-layer shear in
advance of a shortwave trough moving across GA could still support
redevelopment of a strong storm or two through the evening.
..Dean.. 05/30/2025
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