Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms with wind damage, large hail,
and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast...
An Enhanced Risk for damaging thunderstorm winds has been introduced
with this outlook for portions of eastern GA, much of SC and
central/eastern NC.
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward
from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this
shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move eastward
from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by evening. A trailing cold
front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and
Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening
cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be
tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover.
As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops
across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and near the cold front and move generally east. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests a predominantly linear mode across the Enhanced
Risk area, where confidence regarding greater destabilization is
highest. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe
hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing
segments.
Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is
lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for
discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms
would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose
a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence
increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this
area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the
1630z Convective Outlook.
Along the Gulf Coast from southeast TX into the western FL
Panhandle, moderate/strong buoyancy and 25-30 kts of westerly shear
will be present. Here, scattered clusters of strong/severe storms
posing a risk for mainly damaging winds are expected to develop this
afternoon.
...Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet will
move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoon
and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, but
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
will support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and
evening. Localized damaging gusts and hail could accompany the
strongest storms.
...Eastern NM into Far West TX...
Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest boundary-layer
moisture across parts of NM and West TX. Moderate instability and 25
kt midlevel northwest flow could support a few strong storms capable
of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts this afternoon and
evening.
..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/30/2025
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