Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE HILL COUNTRY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes remain possible with severe with thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening from the Texas-New Mexico border eastward into
central Texas. Thunderstorms producing scattered damaging winds are
possible this afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
...20z Update Southern Plains...
Convective development underway across the southern High Plains of
eastern NM and west TX is expected to continue maturing through this
afternoon. Supercells, with an initial risk for large to very large
hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes remain likely. Upscale
growth into one or more MCS/strong clusters is expected this evening
as large-scale ascent overspreads the Southern Plains. Recent hi-res
guidance and more widespread convective development over the High
Plains suggest somewhat greater coverage/persistence of severe
storms is possible across central TX and the Big Bend region this
evening. Have opted to expand the Slight Risk across
central/south-central TX, where damaging gusts and hail potential,
associated with the expanding cluster/clusters of severe storms, may
extend eastward this evening into the early overnight hours.
Farther north, severe probabilities have been trimmed along the Red
River vicinity of southwest OK and western North TX where persistent
cloud cover along a slow-moving cold front have limited
destabilization. Ahead of the front, weak low-level warm advection
may support additional storms this evening. A conditional risk of
large hail and damaging winds remains in place with any sustained
convective clusters able to develop.
...Gulf Coast and Southeast...
Persistent cloud cover and convective overturning from an ongoing
broad cluster of embedded thunderstorms will continue to spread
eastward along the Gulf Coast and Southeast states this afternoon.
Sporadic damaging gusts will remain possible with the stronger
embedded cores. However, the lack of stronger surface heating and
convective overturning has largely negated the western edge of the
severe risk from west-central GA, into AL and the western FL
Panhandle. To the east, some clearing and diurnal heating has
allowed a more focused corridor of destabilization to develop along
the immediate coast from the Savannah River in east GA to
southeastern NC. This larger buoyancy, overlapping with
strengthening westerly mid-level flow, should support one or more
loosely organized clusters capable of producing scattered damaging
winds and perhaps isolated hail across the coastal plain and
immediate coast into this evening. Have adjusted the Slight Risk
area to better capture the potential for damaging gusts with
ongoing/expected storms.
Otherwise, see the prior discussion for additional information.
..Lyons.. 05/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025/
...Southern Plains...
Visible satellite imagery indicates strong heating will occur south
of a cold front currently draped from east-central NM into the
southern portion of the TX Panhandle/South Plains. Relatively moist
low-level easterly flow with 60s deg F surface dewpoints and steep
mid-level lapse rates, will support MLCAPE up to 2500-3000 J/kg by
mid/late afternoon and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Even though
large-scale forcing associated with an upper trough over the Midwest
and central Plains will remain modest with southward extent into the
southern High Plains, scattered thunderstorm development is forecast
by mid-late afternoon near the front and across southeast NM, with
increasing coverage and clustering possible this evening. Models
shows initially supercells capable of large to very large hail and
perhaps some tornado risk early in the convective life cycle across
parts of eastern NM into portions of the TX South Plains. The
aforementioned upscale growth/clustering is expected and depicted in
several recent CAMs, suggestive of a corridor of severe gusts
(perhaps locally in the 70-85 mph range) mainly this evening.
Farther east, most guidance depicts more isolated coverage of
thunderstorms near the front from southern OK into north TX.
However, moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer
shear will support a conditional risk of large hail and damaging
wind with any sustained convection in this region. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms will also be possible from the Raton Mesa
vicinity southward across eastern NM, within a weakly unstable but
favorably sheared environment. The strongest cores may pose a threat
of isolated hail and severe gusts during the afternoon and early
evening.
...Southeast...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this morning along the Gulf
Coast will continue east across adjacent portions of southern AL/FL
Panhandle into southern GA. This activity is immediately ahead of
an eastward-migrating shortwave trough over the northern Gulf Coast.
Extensive cloud debris and some convective overturning this morning
will act to limit the overall severe threat across the FL
Panhandle/southern AL. Farther east and northeast, stronger
destabilization has occurred through midday with temperatures rising
into the 80s/lower 90s deg F and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s.
MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg is forecast over the
coastal plain where stronger heating has occurred already this
morning. Strong to severe convection may either persist from the
ongoing morning activity, or initiate within the weakly capped
environment across parts of GA into SC. Low-level flow will likely
remain rather weak, but some strengthening of westerly mid-level
winds should support one or more loosely organized clusters capable
of producing scattered damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail.
...Ozarks into the Mid-South...
Some low-level moistening is expected through the day from parts of
northern AR/southern MO into the Mid-South, in association with a
approaching mid/upper-level trough and developing weak surface
cyclone. Relatively modest heating and weak lapse rates aloft may
tend to limit buoyancy, but ascent attendant to the approaching
shortwave trough may support scattered thunderstorm development
along/ahead of a front from late afternoon into the evening. Have
expanded low-severe probabilities farther east into south-central KY
and Middle TN where recent guidance shows sufficient destabilization
may occur late tonight. The strengthening wind profiles during this
timeframe ahead of the mid-level disturbance may support a
conditional risk for a few supercells capable of all-severe hazards.
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