Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail, severe winds, and a couple of tornadoes
will be a concern with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from
the Texas-New Mexico border eastward into central Texas.
Thunderstorms producing scattered damaging winds are possible later
today across parts of the Southeast. An isolated severe threat may
develop this afternoon across the Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity.
...Southern Plains...
Strong daytime heating is expected today near/south of a cold front
from parts of eastern NM into west-central TX. Generally 60s surface
dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE up to
2500-3000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer
shear sufficient for organized convection, including supercells.
Even though large-scale forcing associated with an upper trough over
the Midwest and central Plains will remain modest with southward
extent into the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorm
development should initially occur by 19-22Z near the front across
eastern NM into west-central TX, with increasing coverage and
clustering possible this evening. Large to isolated very large hail
(2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe gusts should be the main
threats. There may also be some potential for a couple of tornadoes,
especially in the vicinity of the surface boundary where low-level
winds will be backed to east-southeasterly late this afternoon and
early evening, modestly enhancing 0-1 km SRH.
Farther east, most guidance depicts more isolated coverage of
thunderstorms near the front from southern OK into north TX.
However, moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer
shear will support a conditional risk of large hail and damaging
wind with any sustained convection in this region. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms will also be possible from the Raton Mesa
vicinity southward across eastern NM, within a weakly unstable but
favorably sheared environment. The strongest cores may pose a threat
of isolated hail and severe gusts during the afternoon and early
evening, before quickly weakening with eastward extent and the loss
of daytime heating.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along/near the coast across
southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. This activity is related to
large-scale ascent and modest low-level warm/moist advection
occurring ahead of a mid/upper-level trough moving eastward across
the lower MS Valley. Some enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear
associated with the trough could support occasional strong to
locally severe thunderstorms this morning, but instability over land
is generally expected to remain weak owing to poor lapse rates aloft
and persistent cloudiness.
Downstream of this morning convection and the mid/upper-level
trough, diurnal heating of a moist airmass should foster the
development of weak to moderate instability by this afternoon, with
MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg where stronger heating
occurs. Strong to severe convection may either persist from the
ongoing morning activity, or initiate within the weakly capped
environment across parts of GA into SC. Low-level flow will likely
remain rather weak, but some strengthening of westerly mid-level
winds should support one or more loosely organized clusters capable
of producing scattered damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. The
Slight Risk has been maintained for parts of GA/SC with this update,
where confidence remains in stronger pre-convective
heating/destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates.
...Ozarks into the Mid-South...
Some low-level moistening is expected through the day from parts of
northern AR/southern MO into the Mid-South, in association with a
approaching mid/upper-level trough and developing weak surface
cyclone. Relatively modest heating and weak lapse rates aloft may
tend to limit buoyancy, but ascent attendant to the approaching
shortwave trough may support scattered thunderstorm development
along/ahead of a front from late afternoon into the evening.
Increasingly favorable wind profiles and related deep-layer shear
could support a few stronger cells despite the modest instability,
with some potential for isolated damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered for
parts of this region, if observational trends support greater
destabilization than currently forecast.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/29/2025
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