Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/WEST TX INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST
GA INTO SC...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two will be
possible this afternoon and evening from the Texas-New Mexico border
eastward into central Texas. Storms with isolated to scattered wind
damage are possible later today across parts of the Southeast.
Isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado are possible
across the Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity into this evening.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern
CONUS is forecast to amplify through the period, as a vigorous
shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the Ozarks
towards the Mid-South. In advance of this shortwave, a
lower-amplitude midlevel trough will move from the lower MS Valley
into the Southeast and Carolinas. Later in the period, a surface low
will gradually deepen and move from the Ozarks into TN/KY, as a
trailing cold front moves southward across parts of the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley.
...Parts of west/central TX and eastern NM...
Strong heating is expected later today near and south of the cold
front from parts of eastern NM into west-central TX. Relatively rich
low-level moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE near/above 2500 J/kg by mid/late afternoon, with 35-45 kt of
effective shear sufficient for organized convection. Initial
supercell development will be possible by late afternoon near the
front across west-central TX, with increasing storm coverage and
clustering possible this evening. Large to very large hail and
localized severe gusts will be possible, along with some potential
for a tornado or two, especially in the vicinity of the surface
boundary. Any upscale growth could result in an increasing
severe-wind threat during the evening.
Farther east, guidance generally depicts more isolated coverage of
storms near the front from southern OK into north TX. However,
moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will
support a conditional risk of large hail and damaging wind with any
sustained storms in this region as well.
Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the
Raton Mesa vicinity southward across eastern NM, within a modestly
unstable but favorably sheared environment. The strongest storms
could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts
during the afternoon and evening.
...Southeast...
Extensive convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from
near the Gulf coast into parts of AL, in advance of the
mid/upper-level trough moving eastward across the region. Some
enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear associated with the trough
could support strong to locally severe storms during the morning.
Downstream of the morning convection and approaching trough, diurnal
heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate buoyancy by
afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg where
stronger heating occurs. Strong to locally severe storms may either
persist from ongoing morning convection, or initiate within the
weakly capped environment across south GA into SC. Low-level flow
will likely remain rather weak, but some strengthening of flow at
700 mb and above could support one or more loosely organized
clusters capable of isolated to scattered wind damage, and perhaps
isolated hail. A 15% wind area/Slight Risk has been included for
parts of GA/SC, where confidence is currently greatest in stronger
pre-convective heating/destabilization and steepening of low-level
lapse rates.
...Ozarks into the Mid-South...
Some low-level moistening is expected through the day from parts of
northern AR/southern MO into the Mid-South, in association with the
approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough and developing weak
cyclone. Relatively modest heating and weak midlevel lapse rates may
tend to limit buoyancy, but ascent attendant to the approaching
shortwave trough may support scattered thunderstorm development
along/ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
Increasingly favorable wind profiles could support a few stronger
cells despite the modest instability, and at least a low probability
threat of damaging wind, hail, and a tornado could evolve by
evening. Greater probabilities may need to be considered for parts
of this region, if trends support greater destabilization than
currently expected.
..Dean/Thornton.. 05/29/2025
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