Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should
be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where
very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and
Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent
associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has
encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into
north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These
thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport
by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the
front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all
present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for
mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more
hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions
and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the
front across OK/TX into AR.
With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively
reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the
ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning
across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe
threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced
greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become
slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale
ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas,
persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed
thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the
afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just
south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level
airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to
support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a
threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado
threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface
based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level
shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for
strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this
afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated
north of the front.
Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants
of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this
morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable
severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal
and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm
coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions
later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing
isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form
along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat
for hail and damaging winds.
Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late
tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into
north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025
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