Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the
southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most
concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western
Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are
possible.
...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region...
Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest
flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this
feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height
rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only
appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New
England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into
the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor
imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new
baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from
NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are
increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the
Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale
ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the
period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the
synoptic front.
Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central
AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will
extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this
corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE
north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just
south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated
convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period
along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce
large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking
is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a
sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will
be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate
along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid
afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the
frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very
moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large
hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that
maintain their surface-based inflow.
LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley
during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX
late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN
Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary
instigator in robust convective development.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025
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