Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be
focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle
Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes
are all possible.
...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley...
With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly
winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone
extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South,
east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic
States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the
convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today
across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley.
Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous
near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent
low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm
development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and
evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this
boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep
lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized
updrafts.
A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is
expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to
east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning
regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which
could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the
deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some
modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector
development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based
supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more
prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large
to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular
development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters
posing a damaging wind threat as well.
...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight...
Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight
(after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent
increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose
a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as
well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms
spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment.
...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as
a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some
details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the
front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds.
..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025
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