Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas,
Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and
hail possible.
...Synopsis...
A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track
from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of
Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much
of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with
modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear.
At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX,
with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped
air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK,
and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms
will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain
favorable.
Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA
into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible.
Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of
the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC
supporting locally strong gusts.
...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex...
Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas
early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the
previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over
2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring
south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main
threat with any such activity.
...Central and southern Plains...
Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into
parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough
should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms
producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest
OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far
southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles
though the evening.
...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI...
Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the
surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep
lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support
marginal hail.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025
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