Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of
the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today,
with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong
heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a
diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level
jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from
western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening.
The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over
western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a
strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should
develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing
sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail
will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but
enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a
few tornadoes.
Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered
across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless,
steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will
pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging
winds through the evening.
...Northeast KS...
A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over
central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing
risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon
over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While
this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of
large hail and gusty/damaging winds.
...Southeast States...
Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of
GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development
expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively
disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few
robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds.
..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025
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