Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and
evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the
eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.
...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast
Virginia...
A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern
Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward
over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs
southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An
associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across
eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves
southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low
to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold
mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the
eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak
instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some
updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for
hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening.
A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over
the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear
will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a
limited overall severe threat.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/11/2025
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