Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this
afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast
Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.
...Discussion...
The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective
scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader
area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing
at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North
Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a
result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures.
Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern
Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak
surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this
region in the next 1 to 2 hours.
Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally
this evening.
..Goss.. 04/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/
...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast
Virginia...
A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern
Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward
over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs
southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An
associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across
eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves
southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low
to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold
mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the
eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak
instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some
updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for
hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening.
A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over
the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear
will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a
limited overall severe threat.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TK6GgB
