Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far
southeast Georgia and northern Florida.
...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern
Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over
the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward
from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface
cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas
today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north
FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination
with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb)
midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern
Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and
relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will
be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds
for a few hours this afternoon/evening.
A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over
the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear
will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and
only sub-severe hail/wind is expected.
..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025
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