Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far
southeast Georgia and northern Florida.
...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern
Florida...
At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S.
today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the
surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina
from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with
surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern
North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level
jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent
will likely support convective development this morning. From this
convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of
destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest
of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at
20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a
0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would
be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible.
Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in
the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in
areas that destabilize the most.
Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida,
a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface
heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near
the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat.
..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025
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