Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of
the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns.
...Discussion...
Strong 500mb speed max is translating across the central Plains
toward the Mid South. This will allow an upper trough to deepen east
of the MS River, and heights will fall accordingly as seasonally
cool mid-tropospheric temperatures settle into this region. Latest
model guidance suggests 500mb, -20C isotherm will extend across
northern GA/AL/MS by 18z, which results in very steep lapse rates
north of the digging jet.
Surface reflection to this digging trough is somewhat disjointed and
not particularly focused, though a synoptic front should extend
across southeast MO-central AR-northeast TX by mid day. Subsequent
southeast movement will take this boundary to near the central Gulf
Coast by sunrise Friday. Current thinking is strong boundary-layer
heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19-20z
across portions of MO/IL along the weakly convergent front. While
moisture is quite limited ahead of the front, cool profiles favor
the potential for robust convection. This activity will spread
southeast toward the northern Gulf States with an attendant threat
of hail and wind.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/10/2025
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