Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of
the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of
damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.
...20z Update...
Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this
afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and
east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the
Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related
tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue
east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward
the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is
still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward
the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional
details.
Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across
the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could
focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset.
..Guyer.. 03/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level
shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes
and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks
into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening.
The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a
trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the
Atlantic States and Southeast.
...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians
south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud
shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger
heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by
lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will
yield weak to moderate buoyancy.
Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably
result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some
strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a
corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA
northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas.
The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally
veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature.
Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist.
...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic
states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable
heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through
the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer
moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms
developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and
moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered
damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph).
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