Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the
Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of
damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while
another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the
eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop
northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough,
while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much
of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor
of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based
thunderstorms for much of the day.
...Southeast to the Carolinas...
Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the
northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although
there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate
instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to
support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across
the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon.
While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across
this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft
rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and
a threat for a couple of tornadoes.
Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward
extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating
of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak
destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows
re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas
by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward
across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as
strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in
tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to
support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a
bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level
flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few
embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist.
...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the
cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered
thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread
east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With
enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead
shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually
moves offshore.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025
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