Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC...ERN VA...SERN PA...THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND SRN/CNTRL NJ...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity may continue to pose the risk for locally
damaging wind gusts while overspreading the Chesapeake Bay and
northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity late this evening.
...01Z Update...
...Mid Atlantic...
Given the modest strength of the southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
(around 40 kt), with the loss of boundary-layer heating,
thermodynamic profiles near/east of the pre-frontal surface trough
across the Mid Atlantic vicinity are becoming increasingly marginal
for convective development capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
...Florida...
A couple of strong thunderstorms linger near a weak surface trough
across the east central Florida Peninsula, where mixed-layer CAPE is
moderately large, but diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.
Given the rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow and modest
deep-layer shear, thunderstorm intensities are expected to wane
within the next hour or two.
...Deep South Texas...
Another isolated strong to severe thunderstorm has developed to the
east of Laredo near a diffuse dryline, as an initial severe storm
near the San Antonio vicinity dissipated. However, given the
inhibition associated with warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air
present across the region, this latest cell is not expected to be
long-lived, as boundary-layer cooling proceeds and inhibition
increases further.
..Kerr.. 04/01/2025
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