Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across
parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this
morning and later in the afternoon to early evening.
...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians...
A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into
south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward
across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is
characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the
low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across
this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk
shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists
over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e.
850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are
supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line,
with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as
strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the
cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to
lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern
Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale
ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this
convective line by the late morning.
The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by
the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA
west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another
low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the
region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the
vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of
the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the
boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear
will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated
storms.
Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary,
with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is
realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low
70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly
unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level
hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized
cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle
TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may
accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western
NC by early evening.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025
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