Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY....
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley.
...TN and vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front
extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along
and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints
now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover
appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg
surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions
indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track
east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening.
Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night,
suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However,
mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly
flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete
rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A
tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in
east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over
the mountains.
..Hart/Jirak.. 02/06/2025
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