Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and
immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms
may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is
expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the
northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a
southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern
Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the
southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at
the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture
advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is
expected over those areas.
As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form
south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA,
with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low.
Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of
LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and
theta-e advection at 850 mb.
MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast,
although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor
much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with
widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into
southern MS.
Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the
Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few
embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025
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