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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

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Saturday, February 22, 2025

SPC Feb 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight.

...TX/LA...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across
the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX.
Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave
will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of
scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the
mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced
shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep
convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well.
Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a
risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this
scenario.

..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025


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