Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and
immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms
may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is
expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
through the southern stream across TX. This shortwave is forecast to
continue eastward throughout the day, progressing through the Lower
MS Valley and ending the period over AL. Another shortwave trough
will follow in the wake of the first wave. This second shortwave,
which is currently over the central Rockies, is expected to continue
quickly southeastward, reaching central TX by early tomorrow
morning.
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the Upper TX/southwest
LA coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
through the northwest Gulf. This low is expected to move eastward
ahead of its parent shortwave trough, remaining just offshore while
gradually deepening. With this low expected to remain offshore,
little if any airmass modification in anticipated onshore with
offshore flow maintaining cool and stable surface conditions. Even
so, moderate low-level warm-air advection (supported by 850 mb winds
from 20 to 30 kt), will persist, supporting a broad area of mostly
showers from the Lower MS Valley across the central Gulf Coast.
Buoyancy will be limited by moist profiles and poor lapse rates, but
cool mid-level temperatures should still support enough buoyancy for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected over LA Coast.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of OR and
WA amid the strong westerly/southwesterly upper flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures anticipated throughout the period. Greatest
thunderstorm chances are expected after 00Z across WA, as a
shortwave trough and associated large-scale forcing for ascent move
through the region.
..Mosier/Grams.. 02/23/2025
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