Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe,
will be possible across parts of the Southeast today.
...Southeast...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a
cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of
Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern
CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep
east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the
period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this
front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should
be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse
rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should
allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of
the front.
Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to
the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence
along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should
limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so,
there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the
broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of
southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient
low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The
overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal
given the limited instability forecast over land.
...Outer Banks...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or
just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest
that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf
Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two
may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly
eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited
spatially for low severe probabilities.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025
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