Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe,
will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida
this afternoon.
...GA/FL vicinity...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing
over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move
east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly
flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to
sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early
afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the
front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor
lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger
updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a
localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The
enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary
layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only
isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not
yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push
east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection
associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late
this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering
strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal
passage.
..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025
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