Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the
central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates
through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During
the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will
intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach
120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height
falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS
Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response
to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from
northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the
trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm
development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then
along the boundary as it surges east through the period.
Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to
elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a
particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse
rates.
Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed
from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This
corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in
response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest
near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early
across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the
mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley
during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and
buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even
so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit
strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If
sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some
risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor
lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable
destabilization.
..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/THgG9N
