Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across
central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight.
...01z Update...
Upper low is currently located along the northern AZ/NM border,
ejecting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. Strongest
mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough over
northern Mexico late tonight into far west TX. As a result, LLJ
should strengthen after 06z, along the I35 corridor into
north-central TX. Substantial cloud cover and cool boundary-layer
temperatures have restricted surface-based buoyancy; however, 00z
sounding from FWD does exhibit around 800 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a
parcel near 850mb. Scattered convection is expected to increase
within the warm advection corridor ahead of the front later this
evening. The majority of convection should remain elevated, but
after 09z LCLs will lower as modified Gulf air mass continues to
advance north. Some risk for near-surface based supercells are
possible as this occurs. Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue.
..Darrow.. 01/30/2025
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