Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight
from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi
Valley.
...East-central TX into the lower MS Valley...
A large mid to upper-level low centered near the CO/KS/OK/TX border
region will migrate eastward through tonight before reaching the
lower MO Valley early Friday morning. A belt of 100+ kt 500-mb flow
will move from southwest TX northeastward into eastern OK/north TX
by early evening before overspreading the Ark-La-Miss and lower OH
Valley. The strongest upper forcing for ascent will shift
northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and
lower OH Valley. Coincidentally, a weak surface low will move from
northeast TX towards the IL vicinity late tonight. Surface analysis
this morning indicates a warm frontal zone draped over northeastern
TX and central LA. Model guidance indicates this feature will
advance into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South later this
afternoon/evening.
Considerable cloudiness today will limit overall destabilization in
combination with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates
(reference 12 UTC Fort Worth/Del Rio, TX and Shreveport, LA raobs).
However, a plume of modified Gulf moisture featuring dewpoints
ranging from near 70 to the mid 60s, extends from Deep South TX
northward into eastern TX ahead of the cold front and south of the
northward advancing warm frontal zone. Uncertainty for severe today
into tonight is related to overall weak instability and storm
development immediately ahead of the front. It seems plausible
storms will gradually intensify through the morning into the
afternoon. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs which would
support a potential risk for organized line segments/supercells.
Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes appear
to be the primary threats with the stronger storms as this potential
severe activity shifts east in tandem with a strong LLJ. Weaker
instability with east extent into the lower MS Valley this
evening/tonight will likely lead to a lessening severe threat with
time.
..Smith/Kerr.. 01/30/2025
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