Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were
needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a
plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime
heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued
moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates
should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the
overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 01/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/
...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma...
A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest
Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift
generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually
taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening
southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary
layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F
dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast
will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward
the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit
storm intensity.
By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing
for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific
cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from
central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb
temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for
severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage
is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight
time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A
surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on
the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A
marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop
with this activity.
...Southern New York/southern New England...
Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase
to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or
around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective
influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/THfnFY
