Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into
eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible
across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains.
...Northeast...
The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and
northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal
plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots
will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into
southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will
contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass.
RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward
into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F,
with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should
be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in
or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado
threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts,
will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today,
eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon.
...East-central Texas...
A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas
Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of
central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest
that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of
instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This
convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon,
reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening.
The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates
could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts.
...Southern High Plains...
A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over
the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and
eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate
instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that
initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected
to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability
corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within
this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024
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