Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
..Hart/Lyons.. 08/08/2024
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