Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps
hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over
parts of the High Plains into southern Montana.
...High Plains into southern MT...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the
next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over
southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will
be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the
northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max
increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the
surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it
will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level
trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool,
originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold
across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much
of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level
lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model
guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will
be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust
convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the
aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some
organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit
severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and
marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period,
the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into
southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally
severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a
favorable zone of low-level warm advection.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024
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