Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across
portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is
not currently anticipated.
...Rockies/Central High Plains Region...
Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the
end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies
ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak
disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central
Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the
afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be
particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior
Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust
convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty
winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates
will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher
terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective
temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will
spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly
flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS
during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation
across the central High Plains during the overnight hours.
...Coastal Carolinas...
Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas
later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend
across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions.
Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early
afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening.
Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024
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