Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas.
Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity.
...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico...
An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four
Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled
frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX.
Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening
(dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into
eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest
destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast
hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible.
Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope
flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool
side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across
southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will
support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional
cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk
for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little
capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts.
Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and
cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the
Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer
proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture.
Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will
accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such,
the Marginal risk has been expanded southward.
..Leitman.. 05/11/2024
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