Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will
continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia.
A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are
also expected across the Carolinas.
...Southern Georgia/northern Florida...
A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included
embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue
east-southeastward this morning, favoring the
prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the
Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related
tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving
offshore.
The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but
some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS
southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some
potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across
southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized
convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible,
with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.
...Carolinas...
With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly
offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a
corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in
advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough
approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development
along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive
of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing
segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and
damaging wind gusts.
...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau...
To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated
convection may develop this afternoon into early evening,
particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to
the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains
uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few
severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk.
...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley...
Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of
Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the
shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability
will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep
mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated
gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024
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