Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and
west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur.
...Southwest Texas and central/southeast New Mexico...
An upper-level low over the Southwest Deserts will progress
generally eastward, evolving into a positive-tilt upper wave as it
crosses the Four Corners region through tonight. A stalled front
near the Mexico/New Mexico mountains will slowly move/redevelop
northeastward, with moist low-level upslope flow across the Rio
Grande region, Transpecos, and into the interior New Mexico
mountains and higher terrain.
In these areas, surface dewpoints will generally range from upper
40s/lower 50s across New Mexico to lower/middle 60s F southeastward
toward the Texas Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande vicinity. Relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates will exist atop this relatively moist
boundary layer, contributing to potentially 500 J/kg MLCAPE across
interior New Mexico and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across far
west/southwest Texas. The potential persistence of multi-layer cloud
cover east/northeast of the mountains/higher terrain should
spatially relegate the potential for surface-based storms to the
more immediate near-mountain areas, Transpecos, and Rio Grande
vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight
forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is
possible where adequate destabilization does occur.
At least isolated storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in
the aforementioned upslope/differential-heating favored areas. The
environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that
develop, especially across the Transpecos, with severe hail possible
as far north as northern New Mexico in a more modest instability
regime. Some stronger wind gusts may also occur, and a brief tornado
is possible. Additional storms could develop eastward across the Rio
Grande during the evening. Storms will otherwise trend more elevated
this evening as they progress eastward away from higher terrain.
...Upper Ohio River Valley...
Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected
into the afternoon in association with a southeastward-moving cold
front, ahead of a clipper-type shortwave trough. The near-frontal
preceding air mass will only be modestly moist (40s F surface
dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited. However, sufficient
heating and destabilization may allow for a few stronger storms
capable of hail and/or gusty winds. While organized severe storms do
not appear overly likely, this potential will be reevaluated in
subsequent outlooks.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/11/2024
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