Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL
AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC
INTO SOUTHEAST NC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible
today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe
storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible
across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS
today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move
southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an
upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move
across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of
extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward
across parts of the Southeast and Texas.
...Parts of GA/north FL...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable
moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some
uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this
system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive
convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is
possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support
potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves
offshore.
Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS,
some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front
during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL
Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for
organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be
possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.
...Parts of the Carolinas...
With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly
offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a
corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in
advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough
approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development
along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting
storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing
segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts
and hail.
...South-central TX...
A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to
slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight.
Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the
day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but
elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two
with isolated hail as the primary threat.
...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley...
Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this
afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving
southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due
to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level
lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the
strongest convection.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024
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