Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the
central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several
tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging
winds.
...Central Gulf Coast States...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west
TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South,
eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream
short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb
speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS
Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm
front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in
part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent
moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread
showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period.
A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely
intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens
across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over
southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy
(1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy
and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the
nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the
northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower
severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across
south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast,
the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of
the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow.
Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of
storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells
interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will
potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may
be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat
through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity
spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is
forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting
severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A
gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected
overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along
the northeast Gulf Coast.
..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T5KFlZ
