Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MS...SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will continue along the Middle Gulf Coast today into
additional parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through
evening. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of
which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds.
...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of
severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast
Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong
convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern
half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer
low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat
limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate
coast.
A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is
likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general
east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line
and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing
ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank.
Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility,
along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident
with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional
WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are
expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida
Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level
jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move
inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this
morning's/afternoon's MCS.
Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms
could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse
rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the
ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/10/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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