Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the
central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several
tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread
damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging.
...Gulf States...
Well-defined upper low is currently located over the Big Bend region
of west TX. This feature is forecast to eject northeast into the
mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a
northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley.
This ejection will be aided in part by a 70-80kt 500mb speed max
that will translate across south TX into AL by 11/12z. LLJ will
remain focused across LA into the early part of the day1 period;
however, a quick eastward shift into AL is expected by early evening
as height falls overspread this region. While this very dynamic
system will aid large-scale ascent, low-level warm advection will
prove instrumental in much of the convection through the period.
Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection was noted
from northwestern AL-central MS-northern LA-southeast TX. This
activity is a continuation of Monday evening thunderstorm complex,
and will greatly influence buoyancy across the northern Gulf States
due to substantial precipitation/overturning. This
southwest-northeast zone of storms will likely oscillate along this
zone through mid day before the upper trough shunts this activity
east. At 0530z, a strong/severe band of thunderstorms has developed
over deep south TX. This is the leading edge of stronger forcing
which should advance to near the Sabine River Valley by the start of
the period.
Current thinking is an organized band of severe thunderstorms,
possibly a bowing squall line, will be located with the front near
the TX/LA border at sunrise. This MCS should advance east during the
day within a strongly sheared environment characterized by MLCAPE
around 2000 J/kg. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this
linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, isolated
discrete supercells could develop ahead of the main squall line. A
few strong tornadoes could develop with this type of activity if it
evolves. Given the extensive precipitation currently noted across
the northern Gulf States, the primary corridor of severe should
extend across LA-southern half of MS into southern AL.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/10/2024
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