Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon across parts of far eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and
northern Illinois.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley today, as a surface low moves through
northwestern Minnesota. Ahead of a cold front, low-level moisture
advection will occur to the southeast of the surface low across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the
mid to upper 40s F. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front,
weak destabilization will take place along and near the moist axis
from southeast Iowa into northern Illinois. During the mid to late
afternoon, convection is forecast to develop near this axis and move
northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
Although MLCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in most areas,
a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km is forecast to
spread over the moist sector during the afternoon. This combined
with large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, and
strong deep-layer along the northwestern edge of an 80 to 100 knot
mid-level jet, will likely support a potential for rotating storms.
Hail, strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be
possible during the late afternoon as instability peaks. The threat
could spread northeastward into the Chicago vicinity before
dissipating over southern Lake Michigan during the early evening.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 02/08/2024
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