Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may impact parts of the Florida Keys into
southeastern peninsula coastal areas today, including one or two
which may pose a risk for a tornado across parts of the Greater
Miami area around mid day.
...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the persistent, blocking mid/upper high over
the Upper Midwest will become increasingly suppressed during this
period. As this occurs, it appears that flow will become a bit more
progressive across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern
Pacific into western Atlantic, though it may undergo some further
amplification today through tonight. This probably will include
building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern
Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau vicinity, downstream of slowly
eastward accelerating mid-level troughing (including progression
farther inland across California).
Downstream of the ridging, mid-level troughing (with at least an
initially more consolidated embedded mid-level low digging into the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico) is forecast to progress across Florida,
the Caribbean and Bahamas through early Tuesday. It appears that
this will be accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the
northeast of the Bahamas during the latter half of this period.
...Southern Florida...
Models indicate that an initial area of low pressure may begin to
take shape over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (offshore of the
central/southern Florida peninsula) by 12Z this morning, before
overspreading southern Florida by late afternoon. In the wake of a
couple of preceding short wave perturbations on the leading edge of
the cyclonic mid/upper flow, potentially cool air associated with
substantive lower-tropospheric drying precedes the developing low,
and probably will maintain a stabilizing influence across much of
the peninsula through the day.
Across parts of the Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas,
Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings do suggest that substantive
boundary-layer destabilization is possible this morning into early
afternoon. Beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures,
low-level moistening, including surface dew points increasing
through the lower/mid 60s F, may become sufficient to contribute to
CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg with daytime heating.
In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, and perhaps coinciding
with enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs across the
Greater Miami vicinity, the environment may become conducive to
supercells potentially capable of producing a tornado for at least
an hour or two late this morning or early afternoon.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/05/2024
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