Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a
marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into
Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas.
...TX/LA...
Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south
to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern
Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected
by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will
encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern
Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance
of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ
should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the
overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts
of convection, some of it potentially severe.
Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into
the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z,
then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew
points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of
the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing
of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned
short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized
updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of
potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early
afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the
frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will
occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX
South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature.
Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly
after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500
J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced
convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region
and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This
activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024
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