Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL
PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the
Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.
...Southeast States into the Carolinas...
A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it
progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity
through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early
Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system,
with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states
during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday.
Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly
during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system
matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked.
Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more
complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow
strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General
expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the
central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending
east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward
movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will
likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary.
In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly
southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and
early afternoon.
This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm
sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud
cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level
temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the
shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields,
thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely
limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear
mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to
the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions
likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the
strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing
damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of
hail are possible as well.
A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend
northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the
closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be
limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting
factor.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024
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