Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, including
parts of Alabama and north Florida into Georgia and South Carolina.
Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible.
...Southeast States/Carolinas...
A southern-stream shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex early this
morning will reach the Tennessee Valley by evening and the
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States late tonight. This system will minor
and become more compact, with very strong mid/high-level
southwesterly winds (70-100 kt) partially overspreading a
convectively muddled warm sector across the Southeast.
A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the Tennessee Valley
today and toward the southern Appalachians/mid-Atlantic tonight.
This might influence some northward advancement of a boundary across
Georgia today, although relatively widespread precipitation/outflows
should effectively define the practical warm sector and today's
related surface-based severe risk, as plentiful convection is
ongoing early today across southern/eastern Alabama into
central/northern Georgia and much of South Carolina. Some
northward/inland warm-sector development may more so occur tonight
across parts of the Carolinas.
Increasingly robust deep-layer shear and ample low-level shear will
support organized storm modes, with the most focused potential for
diurnally intensifying storms expected to be across northern
Florida/southeast Alabama into Georgia today in vicinity of
augmenting convective outflows. Modest destabilization and
aforementioned shear characteristics will support some embedded
supercells as well as bowing segments, capable of damaging winds and
a couple of tornadoes, and possibly some hail as well.
Pending the evolution of upstream convection and the extent of
northward destabilization, some severe risk may develop into parts
of the Carolinas tonight, mainly for coastal areas. Robust
deep-layer/low-level shear could yield some severe risk even with
minimal destabilization.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/12/2024
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