Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible.
...Gulf States...
Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over
southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms
have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent
just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity
should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1
period.
Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which
will allow the surface front currently draped across central
LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily
oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest
model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary
driver in convective development through the period, though
convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal
zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to
develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not
entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across
southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z
exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and
150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells
capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these
conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not
completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to
buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of
the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging
wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection
immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the
primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm
front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into
western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage
across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added
SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024
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