Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States
today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes are all possible.
...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia...
A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will
eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as
cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen
into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning.
Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of
a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last
evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe,
moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these
storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into
northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the
ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging
winds.
Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of
storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor
for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist
across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded
north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a
modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the
preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate
buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition
will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front,
with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt
effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms
do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface
low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential
for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including
a strong tornado.
Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving
upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become
more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface
low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including
portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include
potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a
mixed mode of storms including supercells.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024
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